The Butterfly Effect of Weak Signals

The Butterfly Effect of Weak Signals

One of the most interesting ideas that crossed my mind while attending the Forum on Leadership in Istanbul last week is the importance of detecting and interpreting weak signals for a business to survive. Not all weak signals are important. I dare to say that business signals follow a long-tail distribution in that 20% of them have 80% importance of affecting the longevity and survivability of businesses. Here is the dilemma- how to sort out the needles of the impacting small signals from the haystack of minor signals that are irrelevant. This is an urgent issue in modern business for an ignored impacting signal may bring a very successful business on its feet.

The Kodak company ignored the weak signal that should have alerted Kodak to read the future course rather than ignoring it to lose its business. Businesses need to adapt, and they need to do that beforehand. Waiting for things to change before adapting means leaving it too late. Big signals are, ironically, less important than weak signals because almost every business can see big signals. It is the weak signals that have the potential to grow rapidly and destroy the normal businesses that are worth. Because we see them small today, we tend to ignore them. This is paradoxical because planners plan and in our complex world it is the weak signals of change that may decide the future of business. Unfortunately, and paradoxically, these are the important signals that are ignored by business planners and strategists.

Plants and animals survive because they can detect the weak signals and adapt to them. They have this innate monitoring tools to help them do so. However; humans may blind themselves with established successes, familiarity, previous records, best practices and groupthink to lead themselves astray.

We need to be aware to get rid of our success syndromes and seeing success without its opposite failure or see the positive side and not balancing it by searching for the negative side of what we are successful at.
Ali Anani

The Cynefin Framework has four blocks to sort out organizations. These are simple, complicated, complex and chaotic. I may say that there are strong signals that organizations are growing more to being composed of complex and complicated. Complicated like the aerospace industry have thousand of different parts working together. Complex because these organizations have thousands of similar entities working together like thousands of workers. These mega-organizations are subject far more to weak signals than simple organizations. These are the organizations that need to consider weak signals as a major source of threat than falling prey to long-standing successes, assumptions, beliefs and groupthink.

The Blue Ocean Strategy calls for differentiating your business so that it may play alone in the clear waters of the blue ocean. I believe that the strongest differentiator and disruption to businesses is through identifying weak signals and studying them by developing different scenarios to prepare for the unpredictable business environment.

This buzz is an invitation for all readers to share their experiences and thoughts hoping for reaching a road map on how best to detect and understand weak signals in order to turn them into opportunities rather than threat
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Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#69
i agree. Currently, what I am studying is how to collect signals and how to sort them out. I shall be sharing my findings soon. I didn't realize the huge amount of thinking this issue requires, but it is most interesting.

Harvey Lloyd

Harvey Lloyd

3 years ago #59

#61
You know......we could probably express the thoughts here in Paretos distribution, by stating that 20% of the signals, both weak and strong represent 80% of success. Maybe by encouraging your readers to express the one key signal that lead them to success would allow you to distribute the 20% in a post. It would be interesting to hear the macro list but also how you might prioritize the same. Maybe a collective input and data prioritization of the signals we should listen.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#67
I share your hope dear Tausif Mundrawala. Thank you for your attention

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#65
Thank you so much for expanding on the scope of signal sources and you are right. Whenever we have large numbers of signals. the Law of Large Number becomes dominant. We need to collect signals and as a first step to sort out the most promising 20% among the, I shall check the book you kindly recommended

Joel Anderson

Joel Anderson

3 years ago #56

Signals are everywhere. Strong. Weak. Unanticipated monumental events that started from a simple flap of an idea. Clouded in the fog of discovery. Hidden right in front of us. Confronting us head on. They are reflected in moonshots, pain points, market needs (seen and yet to be realized), goals, grand challenges and any number of other things that are looking for watershed innovation and ground breaking solution in a fast paced world. In his book If You Really Want to Change the World ( http://ifyoureallywanttochangetheworld.com/ ) Norman Winarsky discusses things in a playbook approach with poignant examples stemming from a career of doing the hard work necessary to see, find and deliver on signals. I highly recommend it.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#63
Thank you dear Tausif Mundrawala for accepting my invitation. I am happy for you to study design thinking. Staying closer to the customer is a bright idea. This is what we are practicing here- the contributors of comments are in reality a focus group. Yes, I wish we could meet eventually face-to-face

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#60
I totally agree with your comment. To explain weak signals require initially the presence of very few mice. They replicate fast. SO, the signal here is what would happen if these mice multiply? One answer is that we shall be seeing only 20% of them and that 89% are unseen. We then need to act faster.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#59
Harvey Lloyd- I feel the same because of your comments and other contributors' comments as exactly outlined by your last two lines. Yes, one way of detecting signals is asking. What would happen? We need to develop different scenarios before we may consider a signal as noise or a pre-early indicator. I had to search for the meaning of quatrain. Gogoling this term and looking under images I ran across some strange thoughts. These thoughts are still weak signals, but I am sure some of them will develop into a buzz.

Harvey Lloyd

Harvey Lloyd

3 years ago #52

#57
I believe your rat/mice storyline here implies the opposite of how typically see the Pareto distribution. If i see mice, i can understand i only see 20%, 80% are unseen. A mouse problem can be become a building problem very quickly. This is another one of my gatekeeper rules. I can only see 20% of what is really going on, that may mean i am OK, but we usually fail because we didnt extend our look into the 80% far enough to understand the 20% was not a good sample.

Harvey Lloyd

Harvey Lloyd

3 years ago #51

#56
Early in my small business start up it was called market analysis. Now this has been broken down into some very quatrain physical componants. But in my early career I realized that there are literally millions of nuances within leadership and small business. I remember being overwhelmed. A gentlemen who had been where i was expressed that you need gatekeepers. I dont need to know every inch of fence that contains my thoughts, i merely need gates established at key junctions. My comment of Why should the customer buy from you, is one of those gate keepers. When i ask the question i venture down the fence line in both directions because i started at that gate. Your thoughts here of weak signals are picked up when we explore the question posed. We chisel back through data, meetings and customer interactions to see if we missed a whisper signal. Within your posts we cover many topics and healthy ones too. But it can be overwhelming when we look at all the levers and buttons we should be conscious within.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

I believe has enough experiences to share her views here. This is an invitation for you dear Jean as I believe your managerial experience shall be of great relevance here.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#55
Harvey Lloyd- one recent example that crossed my mind is what happened in an Indian village. Mighty rats bring down 3-story Agra building https://bit.ly/2Npe8zN The rats burrowed underground and destroyed foundations and sewage pipes.Upon reaching the tipping point the building collapses within moments. If interested, the link has a video to show what happened. The point I want to make from this story is that the presence of a single mouse might be a weak signal to what would happen after sometime. When the number of mice increases then it becomes an early indicator. I hope that we don't bury relevant weak signals under the demolishing building of false assumptions. These are the mice that bring down our future.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#55
Thank you Harvey Lloyd. I am researching the topic and there are strong affirmations of your point of view. This coincides with mine as well. One citation defines small signals as "term β€œweak signals” implies they are very vague at first and difficult to detect and become stronger and clearer with time (Nikander & Eloranta, 1997)". The more I am diving into this venture, the more support I find for the part of your comment addressed to me. Thank you for accepting my invitation to comment on this particular issue.

Harvey Lloyd

Harvey Lloyd

3 years ago #47

#52
I believe that CityVP \ud83d\udc1d Manjit describes some of the macro things that went on with technology in its early years. I would point out though that both Microsoft and Apple competed in a single space "user interface". From the mouse to showing executable files in GUI style, to Apple carrying it into apps. We could float upon technology. But our markets are rearranging themselves into community styled businesses where small shops are setting up. They addressing some of these weak signal issues. IMHO we are in our second generation of this and some of the skills of understanding weak signals is becoming more and more important. The smaller community based businesses tend to be one trick ponies, lacking the breadth of diversity into their systems. Ali \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee I also believe that in leadership and management trends the weak signal concept is applicable. I would not want to corner it with macro business topics. The evolution of the human is showing up in the leadership realm and is sending signals. Getting ahead of these signals weak/strong is paramount in maintaining good corporate culture. American Indians described this as "feeling the wind". Alternatively the weak signal is trapped by a human with a world view, speaking differently. So we cant pin down interpretation except with in our own paradigm. Surely we can learn some concepts of listening, but it will be our shadow selves in the end that interpret the signal. Continuing the Pareto distribution concept within the chaos we call life.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

Proma \ud83d\udc1d Nautiyal- would love to read your comments.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

CityVP \ud83d\udc1d Manjitt- while searching I ran across this quote "According to Ansoff and McDonnell (1990), who coined the term, β€œWeak signals” are β€œimprecise early indications about impending impactful events” (p. 20), while strong signals are β€œsufficiently visible” and β€œconcrete”. So, and in view of my previous comment addressed to you, weak signals are crude early indicators and hence their importance.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

I invite dears Harvey Lloyd would be available also to share his wisdom and experiences.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#49
Thank you so much for your elaboration dear CityVP \ud83d\udc1d Manjit. I enjoyed your examples. I believe that weak signals should lead to the formulation of early indicators. Being weak signals we tend to treat all of them as noise. As I mentioned in the buzz weak signals follow the Pareto Law in that 20% of them may have 80% of the impact. So, we need to separate first the white wheat (signals) from the dark wheat (signals).

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#48
The poetry of nature this is how I view your poetic comment my dear Lisa Vanderburg. Enjoy the fly and trip to nature

CityVP Manjit

CityVP Manjit

3 years ago #41

#44
Your question is interesting which was How do you compare early indicators versus weak signals? In the case of Steve Jobs his weak signals came from the market place, he observed the relationship between possibilities for the user and what was already simmering in the market. In the case of early indicators it is the raid other technologists made into the research being done by Xerox Alto Park Research Center that showed that Xerox itself missed early indicators that were being developed by the very research dollars that company had invested in. In the end the early indicators were simply purchased and these acquisitions and purchases served the original observations of weak signals. Microsoft did the exact same. They did not even have a product built when they sold IBM an operating system. IBM did not read the signals from the marketplace therefore priced the value of its offering in the hardware because as the popular signal of the time was "no one ever got fired for buying an IBM". OK maybe nobody ever got fired for buying an IBM, but IBM lost billions in a market that was an instrumental part of their own product offering, except they only saw the hardware and not a single indicator that software was important. Then in the world of code the story gets murky about who developed what and who stole what - but what we do know is that people like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates were cognizant of both indicators and signals and successfully married the two. The people who actually invented the core of their products and services can now only dream and count the lost opportunity of what was in their hands, designed and thought out by them - but having no sense of the value proposition of either key indicators or weak signals. Tales of MS DOS : https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/software/did-bill-gates-steal-the-heart-of-dos Tales of Xerox PARC : https://www.mac-history.net/computer-history/2012-03-22/apple-and-xerox-parc

Lisa Vanderburg L

Lisa Vanderburg

3 years ago #40

#41
Yes dear man - tomorrow I hope, as today I can fly with my grandson. As we all know, conversing with frogs, weaving with spiders, hearing the wisdom of trees - respectful ears to their bark and all that is magical is only possible when we are with small children. That domino effect will ruminate throughout their lives :)

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#45
What an encouraging soul you are Clau Valerio. Thank you. I wonder what is the meaning of your name Clau! It has to mean beauty of spirit, heart and mind as you truly are.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#43
Creative and imaginative people are rare because they tend to break out of the familiar. Seeing weak signals as noise is a practice by most of us; they aren't necessarily so by the creative and imaginative people. They see the unfamiliar, probe it and sense it. They have brave hearts to accept the unfamiliar. You captured this reality elegantly and eloquently CityVP \ud83d\udc1d Manjit by writing "but a Steve Jobs character who can put life and success into weak signals is the road less traveled and one where the handful see the opportunity and have the power or reserve to exercise it". You bring to my mind another issue, which is early indicators versus weak signals. Weak signals may be considered as weak early indicators and therefore are dropped by most of us. How do you compare early indicators versus weak signals?

CityVP Manjit

CityVP Manjit

3 years ago #37

A strong belief in weak signals is what allowed Steve Jobs to achieve what he achieved, but in many organizations even if there are people who see the opportunity in a weak signal, they are not strong enough in position or power to scale that signal the way Jobs was able to. It also takes a mind that can see the weak signal which is certainly not a given. There are weak signals that nearly all of us are utterly blind to and we only will see them when they are pointed out and sometimes we may not see them even if they were pointed out. Jobs in all accounts could be a tyrant in the way he made the weak signals the focal point of his strategy. Not only did his competitors not see him coming but that blindness to weak signals (cognitively speaking) was further hampered by Steve Jobs ordering no leaks of information and thus Apple still remains to this day ironically secret, even though the trends today are about sharing and open source ways. It is important to also recognize that what science fiction tells us about the future, is most probable a future that invariably turns out far different from what is conceived - but a Steve Jobs character who can put life and success into weak signals is the road less traveled and one where the handful see the opportunity and have the power or reserve to exercise it.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#40
Oh dear @Paul Walters. Great to read a comment by you as I know you were cycling in Europe (Holland ) and traveling across Europe by train. Happy arrival on the platform of beBee

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#39
I am receiving the signal and you have an idea "stored" in your mind. You shall share it that I know you closely dear Lisa Vanderburg

Paul Walters

Paul Walters

3 years ago #34

Ali \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee Bravo. As always, well thought out and brilliantly delivered . Thank you

Lisa Vanderburg L

Lisa Vanderburg

3 years ago #33

#23
How right you are my friend..on all counts!#28 Could be that those leaders are less concerned with the water coming in than the eventual loss of air Debasish Majumder!

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#35
Just your comment appeared here John Rylance. I have already responded to your comment.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

John Rylance- I am responding to your comment, which I only became aware of on my mobile phone app. You are right and your comment "This piece puts me in mind of the proverb "For the want of a nail." This want led to the the loss of a shoe, a horse, a rider, a message and ultimately a battle" is precisely behind me giving this buzz its title. I agree in full with you.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

Javier \ud83d\udc1d beBee- First, I wish to thank you for your sharing of this buzz. Second, I have received messages that their comments disappear and are channeled somewhere else. This happened before. One example is the message from Harvey Lloyd in which two comments disappeared . I have received notifications of comments on this buzz, on the mobile phone app, but not on my lab top version. One example is the comment by John Rylance about 15 minutes ago. On my mobile it reads "This piece puts me in mind of the proverb "For the want of a nail." This want led to the the loss of a shoe, a horse, a rider, a message and ultimately a battle". Finally, the issue of widely differing numbers on views and comments counters. I have more than 50% views of my previous buzz on the mobile app than the lab top version.

John Rylance

John Rylance

3 years ago #29

This piece puts me in mind of the proverb "For the want of a nail." This want led to the the loss of a shoe, a horse, a rider, a message and ultimately a battle. 

Debasish Majumder

Debasish Majumder

3 years ago #28

#33
your are sheer an axiom of humility sir Ali \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee! i only to emulate this trade only from you my dear sir.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#32
I find you dear Debasish Majumder soaring besides me

Debasish Majumder

Debasish Majumder

3 years ago #26

i don't know sir Ali \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee about butterfly, but i can comprehensively you only soar high and high!

Debasish Majumder

Debasish Majumder

3 years ago #25

#30
you are perhaps the most exquisite manager who can exploits the best out of his amazing ability to get the desired yield effortlessly! i wonder, what has triggered you to engage in business front instead of academic arena sirAli \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee, where you can have everything out of your exquisite talent! rather you can create more talent out of your amazing prodigy! i simply doff of to your grand interpretations sir!

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#28
My previous comment missed first point. It is related to receiving a small signal from you dear Debasish Majumder. Whenever you commented more than once on my previous buzzes you ended up writing a poem on the subject of the buzz. Are you writing a buzz on small signals my friend?

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

Second, your comment reminds me of the US spacecraft, which exploded due to faulty gaskets. In this case a small error led to losing almost five billion dollars and the lives of astronauts including a PhD physicist. Yes, small signals that we tend to overlook can be deleterious and costly.

Debasish Majumder

Debasish Majumder

3 years ago #22

#26
but when a vessel being launched how many of us do really care the displaced water and its volume sir Ali \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee? but, more than the volume of water at any pretext may enter to the concern vessel, we may not perhaps the impending disaster how rapidly it will work! i wonder, how many of the leaders are aware about the incessant entering of water through a little hole and capable to ponder what disaster it may beckon?

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#25
I only hope that the ball is of crystal so I may be able to see through my crystal-like friend Lisa Vanderburg

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#24
My "synchronous friend" dearest Lisa Vanderburg. You very sensibly wrote "Seems to me one of the greatest dangers to our vessel is inattention to that tiny noise". You say you aren't in business, but you truly are. Why "synchronous" friend? This is because I read your comment having just watched this video titled "8 Signs You’re In A Fake Relationship". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs-2yaOsnf8 This means that detecting and interpreting small signals are not limited to business, but extend to all aspects of our lives and including social lives. You know how you get signals from somebody writing a comment and both of us have experienced this.

Lisa Vanderburg L

Lisa Vanderburg

3 years ago #19

BTW, love this buzz Ali \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee! Business is work, not play. Take your eye off the ball at your own peril!

Lisa Vanderburg L

Lisa Vanderburg

3 years ago #18

#10
Harvey Lloyd rightly said.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

Lisa Vanderburg- a weak signal tells me you have a story to share. Thank you my friend in advance

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#21
Thank you deeply for your outstanding comment and sharing of your work experience my good friend Jerry Fletcher. I wonder what happened to your analog (Tektronix) client!. This is equally interesting. Your example is a perfect one of a successful business that captures weak signals before competitors may notice them as they grow in importance. I am glad you referred to the 3-D printing because I believe we must have watchful eyes to trace developments in this field. As for Media Lab at MIT, luckily I am reading their publications. I quoted one of them in my comment No. 8. The Xerox case is a very interesting suggestion and I shall look at it "in the eye".

Jerry Fletcher

Jerry Fletcher

3 years ago #15

Dr. Ali, I was involved when Hewlett Packard decided to shift to digital for their oscilloscopes. My Client, Tektronix was the world leader in analog instruments. HP made the decision because they could not see a way to win in an analog market and the digital shift in all things was already underway. HP got a solid advantage by dedicating all their oscilloscope development to this new arena. The shift from analog to digital occurred in many industries and Kodak is one historic example. Those of us that were there could see it coming but could not, in hindsight, see how much of a tsunami it was. 3-D printing now in advanced infancy may be similar in effect. Some of the behavioral psychology research may be headed this direction as well. (mixed intuition). One area you may want to look at for historic precedent is the Xerox Park Research facility where a great deal of computer development (including the mouse) occurred but so much never became available in the marketplace until years later. The other organization I suggest is the Media Lab at MIT. Good luck on this journey.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#19
@Bill King- this is a great observation and very relevant story of observation and its impact. namita sinha wrote two great comments on the shared buzz on LinkedIn. In her second comment she wrote "I believe all Business owners and Entrepreneurs in order to detect the weakest signals ,must first practice "enlightened leadership," which essentially means being a good observer and listener - understanding the emotions of human beings, triggers in their business...". Your comment just gives observation the value it merits. It is amazing how we may observe from data analysis. Analysis isn't enough if not coupled by observant eyes.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#15
Great explanations my friend. You do open up this topic and enhance our vision. Reading history will give great support to your comment. One example is Copernicus who said that the earth revolves and he was about to be buried alive. When people fail to "We add to that distortion. If something doesn't fit what we previously believed, then we create a rationale for distorting its meaning to fit our beliefs" people punish the right man. When the Noble Prize laureate Staudinger developed from what started as weak signals the presence of macro-molecules (polymers) a prominent scientist at the time called him crazy. Even scientists may fall in this trap because they see deviations of linearity as stupid. Imagine if the theory of polymers was discarded what effect this would have on humanity!

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#14
Absolutely dear friend Edward Lewellen. Your thoughts are wonderful. We may lose the path ahead because of blindness or from having too much bright light blurring our vision. Generalization is a form of falling to the familiar and this drifts us away from creative thinking and using our senses sensibly.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#12
Thank you Harvey Lloyd for your weak signals are truly differentiates you as a commenter. I am on a journey to explore in more depth all issues pertinent to weak signals. These are the promising signals for a successful and strong futures. The paradox is we get stronger from the weaker signals. This is the anti-arrogance attitude in rreality.

Harvey Lloyd

Harvey Lloyd

3 years ago #10

#11
When we look at medicine we see great weak signals and the courage to chase them. A big weak signal was when medicine determined that men and women have unique biology. Reproductively, certainly but in many other areas as it applies to treatment. Before these signals were seen and understood we saw all matter as matter. If you would allow me drift a little political here, society is expressing that there are no differences. This is a weak signal or sorts that is of the type we should listen to, but walk with caution. We dont want medicine impacted by this thinking. I love how you have displayed the signals of potential chaos in our lives. We need not worry but we should investigate. We slough these weak signals off at our own peril.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#9
There are many main thoughts in your comment. The one that grabbed my attention forcefully is "Weak signals is chaos letting us know that change is ahead". This is a spectacular thought. You know that recently a drug company offered a known drug for epilepsy in a 3- D format.. This is a breakthrough. The drug dissolves readily in the mouth. This is a signal that is worthy of monitoring because it could initiate a new trend of making designated drugs for individuals. It may spur efforts to produce 3- D forms of many more tablet drugs. A new shift is emerging. How this shall affect cost of drugs, their differentiation and disruption of conventional pharmaceutical industries are questions to monitor. This development could disrupt a large sector of the pharmaceutical industries and related industries. The emergence of 3- D printing as a whole is also worthy of witnessing- hopefully, with minimum arrogance resulting from previous successes.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#7
There are many references in literature that support your thoughts Harvey Lloyd is consistent with your thoughts here. Hopefully, we here the right echo and not the misleading ones.

Harvey Lloyd

Harvey Lloyd

3 years ago #7

One the subtleties or weak signals is in defining the terms. The signal may be weak or i may not be listening in that direction. So the signal could be strong but i am hearing/seeing the signal as weak. We should always turn towards a weak signal and hear what it has to say, maybe it is a weak signal or maybe i have become tone deaf. Success is a taming of chaos, which never really gets tamed but for a short period. Weak signals is chaos letting us know that change is ahead. Kodak in its engineering aristocracy lost sight of this salient point. The signal was strong but their sensors were weak. By the time they turned towards what appeared to be a weak signal the competition was already so far ahead. I wanted to add that the weak signals really go back to your previous post where a subtlety of success is the trust factor you are given upfront. Its yours to loose. Customers develop your success in somewhat a blind trust, then you have to earn that trust. Arrogance would have us believe that it's my superior product/service that draws folks in, this is ignores the customers journey to trust first, then decision. Again you bring forward some interesting thoughts of how we read our environment. We do not necessarily need to interpreted from our own narrow narritive. We need to enter chaos and explore these signals.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#1
Dear friend Edward Lewellen- I would to share this information with you from MIT study that is supportive of your comment. "9. Trust seasoned intuition. Experienced managers often possess far more knowledge than they realize, especially when operating within their domains of expertise. If so, they should learn when and how to trust their hunches. Scientist Gary Klein has studied the power of intuition in fast-moving environments such as firefighting, medical emergencies and military combat.26 In one study he found that experienced nurses picked up the onset of septic shock in premature infants at least a day before the textbook symptoms appeared and a blood test could confirm the presence of the deadly bacterium. These nurses had learned to be sensitive to weak signals even if the cues varied and the symptoms were not strong. It takes many years of experience, with good feedback, to develop reliable intuition. But once it has been honed, intuitive hunches should be viewed as valuable inputs, along with more analytical ones, for the judgment process". file:///C:/Users/ali_a/Downloads/How_to_Make_Sense_of_Weak_Signals.pdf

Harvey Lloyd

Harvey Lloyd

3 years ago #5

As i was reading the word β€œarrogance” came to mind along with confirmation bias of the arrogance. Not sure why but i do believe that when humility escapes us then arrogance sets in, blinding us to the subtlety of business. The big waves of business show up in periodicals and talking heads. Success is found in the subtlety of change. Hence my belief that big data is a dead end. Knowing the past would assume that the future will look the same way. We need a little arrogance in startup and could also be translated as courage. But often times the arrogance blinds us to the changes in our own market place. When we view success as a blessing it humbles us and our eyes are open to these subtleties. (In case we wonder what the blessing is, a or many customers chose you to serve them, why? Dont start to believe your own fertilizer but truly understand what they saw in you as they passed by all the other providers. I think you would be surprised at the answer.)We can then pick from the cafeteria of new information to create a new start. With arrogance though we only pick that which confirms our bias. There is a constant question i ask my team, why should the customer choose you to serve them? When approached this way i can hear the echo chamber of arrogance or humility of sacrifice and understanding customer needs.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#5
You are right dear Debasish Majumder. Failing to spot the weak signal that a replacement technology is coming results from many factors. These include, among others, falling to the mirage of best practices for complex companies, drunkenness by previous successes (the syndrome of success, groupthink, unwillingness to change, taking the path of least resistance and a host of other factors. The resulting rigidity failed the company. So, this is a complex issue and results from the interactions of many parameters. So, I am in agreement with your comment. I wish to thank you for sharing the buzz my friend.

Debasish Majumder

Debasish Majumder

3 years ago #3

Despite not being expertise to make any comment, but as it amplifies about signals, it trigger me to share my observation regarding weak signals. i guess, in the modern changing business environment, and with reference to your previous 'Predator and Prey' buzz, today preys are abundantly available and if one region it may become less, than on other region one organization may migrate to satiate their need, whether human resources or market. outsourcing thus appear as boon! Kodak failed, i guess, not mere for weak signals which they incapable to tap, rather the inherent strength of technology inevitably pave the way for heralding sea change in production and business mechanism, which made the company utterly irrelevant. all of a certain they perhaps not able to manufacture smart phone and capture the market, as the photography itself appeared as a easy means by virtue of smart phones! so, the migration not only dealt with laborers, but also it strictly adhered with organizations too and failing to adapt surely bring ruin to an organization too! however, as always enriching buzz sir Ali \ud83d\udc1d Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee! enjoyed read and shared. thank you for the buzz sir.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#3
What we consider as noise could be the weak signal that we seek for my friend.

Ali 🐝 Anani, Brand Ambassador @beBee

#1
Dear friend- you started your comment by saying "Fear friend". My guts tell me that you were thinking of people being fearful of their guts and intuition. I agree 100% with you. I might reveal that I am doing a big literature search on weak signals and how to detect them, sort them and act accordingly. In most of my research findings authors refer to intuition as a compass to what is probably revealing in the future. So, you call is sound and is supported by all big thinkers. I greatly appreciate your feedback

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